Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.3%
Barnsley
21.1%
Draw
34.6%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.79
Barnsley
vs
1.55
Luton
Markets
BTTS64.8%
Over 0.597.3%
Over 1.583.8%
Over 2.564.8%
Over 3.542.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.0%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.6%
1-0
7.2%
2-2
6.8%
0-1
6.3%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
5.2%
0-2
4.3%
3-2
4.1%
1-3
4.0%
2-3
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).