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06 Aug 2024 · 18:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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50.8%
Corinthian
24.0%
Draw
25.2%
Welling United

Expected Goals (xG)

1.63

Corinthian

vs
1.06

Welling United

Markets

BTTS52.2%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.574.6%
Over 2.550.4%
Over 3.528.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
11.4%
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.0%
0-1
7.6%
0-0
6.4%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
5.2%
2-2
5.1%
3-0
4.9%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).