Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →72.0%
Man United
15.9%
Draw
12.1%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
3.00
Man United
vs
1.25
Luton
Markets
BTTS68.6%
Over 0.597.8%
Over 1.593.3%
Over 2.579.7%
Over 3.561.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1
8.0%
2-1
8.0%
3-0
6.4%
2-0
6.4%
1-1
6.1%
4-1
6.0%
3-2
5.0%
2-2
5.0%
4-0
4.8%
4-2
3.8%
5-1
3.6%
1-0
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).