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17 Jan 2023 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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39.6%
Altrincham
28.6%
Draw
31.9%
Maidenhead

Expected Goals (xG)

1.37

Altrincham

vs
1.20

Maidenhead

Markets

BTTS53.2%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.6%
1-0
9.4%
0-0
8.7%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-1
3.9%
3-0
3.3%
1-3
3.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).