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02 Mar 2024 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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40.2%
AFC Wimbledon
29.0%
Draw
30.7%
Milton Keynes Dons

Expected Goals (xG)

1.12

AFC Wimbledon

vs
0.94

Milton Keynes Dons

Markets

BTTS40.6%
Over 0.587.8%
Over 1.560.5%
Over 2.534.0%
Over 3.515.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
14.8%
1-1
12.9%
0-1
12.5%
0-0
12.2%
2-0
8.0%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
3.5%
3-0
3.0%
3-1
2.8%
1-3
2.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).