Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.4%
Millwall
24.5%
Draw
15.1%
Cardiff
Expected Goals (xG)
1.79
Millwall
vs
0.78
Cardiff
Markets
BTTS46.2%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.547.5%
Over 3.525.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.7%
2-0
12.2%
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.1%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
3.8%
4-0
3.3%
4-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).