Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →15.9%
Lugo
22.5%
Draw
61.6%
Almeria
Expected Goals (xG)
0.78
Lugo
vs
1.79
Almeria
Markets
BTTS44.8%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.572.4%
Over 2.547.2%
Over 3.525.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.9%
0-2
12.3%
1-1
10.6%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
7.6%
0-3
7.3%
1-0
6.1%
1-3
5.7%
2-1
4.1%
2-2
3.7%
0-4
3.3%
1-4
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).