Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.1%
Newcastle
25.9%
Draw
25.1%
Leeds
Expected Goals (xG)
1.82
Newcastle
vs
1.26
Leeds
Markets
BTTS61.6%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.582.8%
Over 2.559.5%
Over 3.537.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
1-0
6.9%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
3-1
5.8%
3-0
4.6%
0-1
4.3%
3-2
3.7%
0-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).