Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.5%
Lazio
27.9%
Draw
27.6%
Fiorentina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Lazio
vs
0.95
Fiorentina
Markets
BTTS44.1%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.565.1%
Over 2.538.6%
Over 3.518.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.0%
1-1
12.8%
0-0
10.5%
0-1
10.4%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.8%
2-2
4.0%
3-0
3.8%
3-1
3.6%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).