Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.9%
Aston Villa
28.7%
Draw
41.4%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Aston Villa
vs
1.49
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS56.8%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.577.4%
Over 2.551.5%
Over 3.529.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
1-2
9.0%
0-0
8.2%
0-1
8.0%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.2%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.6%
2-0
5.0%
1-3
4.5%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).