Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.1%
Aston Villa
30.7%
Draw
25.2%
Crystal Palace
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Aston Villa
vs
0.99
Crystal Palace
Markets
BTTS48.8%
Over 0.588.9%
Over 1.570.3%
Over 2.542.3%
Over 3.521.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
1-0
11.1%
0-0
11.1%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.6%
2-2
4.4%
3-0
4.1%
3-1
4.1%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).