Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.7%
Villarreal
20.4%
Draw
18.9%
Sociedad
Expected Goals (xG)
2.21
Villarreal
vs
1.17
Sociedad
Markets
BTTS61.6%
Over 0.596.3%
Over 1.585.3%
Over 2.565.6%
Over 3.543.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.1%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
7.3%
3-1
7.2%
3-0
6.1%
2-2
5.7%
1-2
5.1%
3-2
4.2%
4-1
4.0%
0-0
3.7%
0-1
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).