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01 Nov 2024 · 20:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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91.6%
Bromsgrove Sporting
6.7%
Draw
1.7%
Estrela

Expected Goals (xG)

3.43

Bromsgrove Sporting

vs
0.40

Estrela

Markets

BTTS32.0%
Over 0.597.6%
Over 1.589.7%
Over 2.573.6%
Over 3.553.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

3-0
14.6%
2-0
12.8%
4-0
12.6%
5-0
8.6%
1-0
7.3%
3-1
5.8%
2-1
5.1%
4-1
5.0%
5-1
3.4%
1-1
3.2%
0-0
2.4%
3-2
1.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).