Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.0%
Swansea
30.2%
Draw
27.9%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Swansea
vs
1.01
Watford
Markets
BTTS47.2%
Over 0.588.9%
Over 1.568.1%
Over 2.540.5%
Over 3.520.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.1%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
11.1%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
8.4%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.1%
2-2
4.3%
3-1
3.6%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).