Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.2%
Crawley Town
26.8%
Draw
32.0%
Morecambe
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Crawley Town
vs
1.08
Morecambe
Markets
BTTS47.1%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.567.7%
Over 2.541.9%
Over 3.521.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.6%
1-1
12.6%
0-1
10.8%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
3.5%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).