Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.8%
Bari
31.6%
Draw
31.6%
Padova
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Bari
vs
1.05
Padova
Markets
BTTS46.0%
Over 0.587.7%
Over 1.566.1%
Over 2.538.0%
Over 3.518.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.3%
1-0
11.4%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
7.7%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
4.1%
3-1
3.0%
3-0
2.8%
1-3
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).