Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.6%
Cardiff
27.5%
Draw
46.9%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.08
Cardiff
vs
1.54
Derby
Markets
BTTS52.7%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
8.7%
0-0
8.4%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
4.8%
0-3
4.4%
2-0
4.2%
2-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).