Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.3%
Manchester City
20.3%
Draw
41.4%
Liverpool
Expected Goals (xG)
1.95
Manchester City
vs
2.03
Liverpool
Markets
BTTS74.3%
Over 0.598.4%
Over 1.590.5%
Over 2.575.9%
Over 3.556.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
7.5%
2-2
7.3%
2-1
7.2%
1-1
7.2%
1-3
5.1%
2-3
5.0%
3-2
4.8%
3-1
4.7%
0-1
4.0%
1-0
3.9%
0-2
3.8%
2-0
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).