Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.8%
Manchester City
28.6%
Draw
15.6%
Sunderland
Expected Goals (xG)
1.55
Manchester City
vs
0.72
Sunderland
Markets
BTTS42.0%
Over 0.588.1%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.539.7%
Over 3.519.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.4%
1-1
13.1%
2-0
12.4%
0-0
11.9%
2-1
8.9%
3-0
6.4%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
4.6%
1-2
4.1%
2-2
3.2%
0-2
2.7%
4-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).