Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.6%
Notts County
21.4%
Draw
12.0%
Harrogate
Expected Goals (xG)
1.77
Notts County
vs
0.58
Harrogate
Markets
BTTS36.1%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.567.6%
Over 2.541.6%
Over 3.521.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.3%
2-0
14.9%
1-1
9.4%
0-0
9.2%
3-0
8.8%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.1%
4-0
3.9%
1-2
2.8%
2-2
2.5%
4-1
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).