Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.8%
Cheltenham
25.0%
Draw
35.2%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Cheltenham
vs
1.28
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS53.7%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.574.0%
Over 2.549.8%
Over 3.527.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.8%
1-0
10.1%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
5.5%
3-1
3.9%
1-3
3.4%
3-0
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).