⚽ FootballData
2 – 1
HHT: 21CSV

14 May 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
21.6%
Belenenses
21.4%
Draw
56.9%
Estoril

Expected Goals (xG)

1.07

Belenenses

vs
1.88

Estoril

Markets

BTTS55.1%
Over 0.595.2%
Over 1.578.8%
Over 2.556.5%
Over 3.534.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
10.3%
1-1
10.1%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.3%
1-3
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
0-3
5.8%
2-1
5.6%
2-2
5.3%
0-0
4.8%
2-3
3.3%
2-0
3.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).