Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.1%
Nacional
25.9%
Draw
20.1%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.69
Nacional
vs
0.94
Estrela
Markets
BTTS50.7%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.574.8%
Over 2.549.1%
Over 3.527.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
1-0
11.2%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.1%
0-1
5.9%
3-0
5.8%
3-1
5.5%
1-2
5.4%
2-2
4.6%
0-2
3.2%
3-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).