Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.5%
Maritimo
26.7%
Draw
38.8%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Maritimo
vs
1.23
Setubal
Markets
BTTS47.5%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.542.2%
Over 3.521.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
0-1
12.1%
1-0
11.2%
0-0
8.8%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
6.1%
2-2
4.6%
1-3
3.3%
0-3
2.9%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).