Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.6%
Bolton
23.3%
Draw
17.2%
Northampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Bolton
vs
0.69
Northampton
Markets
BTTS38.6%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.565.1%
Over 2.539.5%
Over 3.519.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.3%
2-0
12.9%
1-1
10.3%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
8.1%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
4.7%
1-2
3.9%
2-2
3.1%
4-0
2.7%
0-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).