Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.0%
St Pauli
33.1%
Draw
40.9%
Mainz
Expected Goals (xG)
0.82
St Pauli
vs
1.10
Mainz
Markets
BTTS38.4%
Over 0.584.4%
Over 1.558.3%
Over 2.530.3%
Over 3.513.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
15.6%
0-1
15.1%
1-1
14.2%
1-0
11.0%
0-2
8.9%
1-2
7.3%
2-1
5.4%
2-0
4.9%
0-3
3.3%
2-2
3.0%
1-3
2.7%
3-1
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).