Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.4%
Estrela
27.7%
Draw
39.9%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.23
Estrela
vs
1.39
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS53.8%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
0-1
9.4%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.2%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
5.3%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).