Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →18.1%
Newport County
24.0%
Draw
57.9%
Northampton
Expected Goals (xG)
0.75
Newport County
vs
1.59
Northampton
Markets
BTTS41.6%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.567.5%
Over 2.541.6%
Over 3.521.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.8%
0-2
12.2%
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
9.1%
1-0
7.7%
0-3
6.5%
1-3
4.9%
2-1
4.3%
2-2
3.4%
2-0
2.7%
0-4
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).