Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.0%
Alcorcon
34.6%
Draw
21.4%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
0.98
Alcorcon
vs
0.58
Lugo
Markets
BTTS27.3%
Over 0.579.0%
Over 1.545.9%
Over 2.520.5%
Over 3.57.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
21.0%
1-0
20.7%
0-1
12.4%
1-1
11.8%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
5.8%
0-2
3.6%
1-2
3.5%
3-0
3.3%
3-1
1.9%
2-2
1.7%
4-0
0.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).