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20 Aug 2025 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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69.0%
Notts County
19.2%
Draw
11.7%
Shrewsbury

Expected Goals (xG)

1.97

Notts County

vs
0.65

Shrewsbury

Markets

BTTS40.8%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.573.3%
Over 2.548.7%
Over 3.526.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
14.7%
2-0
14.1%
3-0
9.3%
2-1
9.2%
1-1
8.9%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
5.1%
4-0
4.6%
1-2
3.0%
2-2
3.0%
4-1
3.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).