Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →13.9%
Shrewsbury
21.4%
Draw
64.6%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.62
Shrewsbury
vs
1.71
Derby
Markets
BTTS36.9%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.566.6%
Over 2.541.1%
Over 3.520.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.5%
0-2
14.2%
1-1
9.5%
0-0
8.9%
1-2
8.8%
0-3
8.1%
1-0
6.9%
1-3
5.0%
0-4
3.5%
2-1
3.2%
2-2
2.7%
1-4
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).