Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.4%
Numancia
23.8%
Draw
44.8%
Santander
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Numancia
vs
1.65
Santander
Markets
BTTS59.7%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.579.9%
Over 2.557.6%
Over 3.535.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
7.5%
1-0
6.8%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
6.2%
1-3
5.0%
0-0
4.9%
2-0
4.5%
0-3
3.7%
2-3
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).