Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →11.6%
Nacional
23.2%
Draw
65.1%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
0.50
Nacional
vs
1.61
Porto
Markets
BTTS31.1%
Over 0.588.3%
Over 1.561.8%
Over 2.535.3%
Over 3.516.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
19.9%
0-2
15.7%
0-0
11.7%
1-1
9.4%
0-3
8.4%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
6.5%
1-3
4.2%
0-4
3.4%
2-1
2.5%
2-2
2.0%
1-4
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).