Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.5%
Watford
31.0%
Draw
29.5%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Watford
vs
0.99
Stoke
Markets
BTTS44.8%
Over 0.587.8%
Over 1.565.1%
Over 2.537.3%
Over 3.517.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
1-0
12.4%
0-0
12.2%
0-1
10.2%
2-0
8.0%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
3.9%
3-0
3.2%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).