Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →13.3%
Spal
20.2%
Draw
66.5%
Matlock Town
Expected Goals (xG)
0.72
Spal
vs
1.93
Matlock Town
Markets
BTTS43.4%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.549.3%
Over 3.527.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.0%
0-2
13.2%
1-1
9.5%
1-2
9.5%
0-3
8.5%
0-0
6.8%
1-3
6.1%
1-0
5.4%
0-4
4.1%
2-1
3.5%
2-2
3.4%
1-4
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).