Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.7%
Valladolid
24.9%
Draw
46.4%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Valladolid
vs
1.55
Malaga
Markets
BTTS54.2%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.575.4%
Over 2.551.1%
Over 3.529.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.8%
0-1
10.4%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
8.0%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
7.0%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.4%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.5%
0-3
4.1%
2-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).