Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.6%
Derby
28.1%
Draw
34.3%
Sheffield United
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Derby
vs
1.29
Sheffield United
Markets
BTTS55.0%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.575.3%
Over 2.549.5%
Over 3.527.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.4%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
0-0
8.1%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.5%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
5.4%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
3.4%
3-0
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).