Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.6%
Manchester City
24.3%
Draw
14.1%
Nott'm Forest
Expected Goals (xG)
1.91
Manchester City
vs
0.83
Nott'm Forest
Markets
BTTS49.3%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.577.3%
Over 2.551.6%
Over 3.529.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.8%
1-1
11.6%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.9%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
4.0%
0-1
3.9%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).