Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.5%
Tondela
29.8%
Draw
34.6%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.00
Tondela
vs
0.98
Alverca
Markets
BTTS39.0%
Over 0.586.8%
Over 1.558.4%
Over 2.531.9%
Over 3.514.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.4%
0-1
14.1%
0-0
13.2%
1-1
12.9%
2-0
6.9%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
3.3%
3-0
2.3%
3-1
2.3%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).