Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.8%
Ath Madrid
25.0%
Draw
13.2%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Ath Madrid
vs
0.60
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS36.7%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.565.5%
Over 2.538.4%
Over 3.518.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.2%
2-0
14.2%
0-0
11.2%
1-1
10.9%
2-1
8.6%
3-0
7.7%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
4.6%
1-2
3.2%
4-0
3.1%
2-2
2.6%
0-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).