Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.1%
Tondela
30.3%
Draw
41.6%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.82
Tondela
vs
1.07
Setubal
Markets
BTTS36.3%
Over 0.585.6%
Over 1.555.9%
Over 2.529.5%
Over 3.512.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.7%
0-0
14.4%
1-0
12.9%
1-1
12.7%
0-2
8.7%
1-2
7.1%
2-1
5.4%
2-0
5.1%
0-3
3.1%
2-2
2.9%
1-3
2.6%
3-1
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).