Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.8%
Lazio
21.2%
Draw
11.0%
Sampdoria
Expected Goals (xG)
1.81
Lazio
vs
0.56
Sampdoria
Markets
BTTS35.8%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.568.4%
Over 2.542.3%
Over 3.521.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.0%
2-0
15.3%
1-1
9.3%
3-0
9.2%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
5.4%
3-1
5.2%
4-0
4.2%
1-2
2.7%
2-2
2.4%
4-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).