Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.1%
Derby
18.4%
Draw
13.5%
Leyton Orient
Expected Goals (xG)
2.01
Derby
vs
0.74
Leyton Orient
Markets
BTTS44.5%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.575.3%
Over 2.551.9%
Over 3.529.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.6%
2-0
12.9%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
8.7%
3-0
8.7%
3-1
6.4%
0-0
5.6%
0-1
5.5%
4-0
4.4%
2-2
3.5%
1-2
3.5%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).