Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.7%
Notts County
25.7%
Draw
22.6%
Gillingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Notts County
vs
0.86
Gillingham
Markets
BTTS43.6%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.566.7%
Over 2.540.7%
Over 3.520.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.9%
1-1
11.9%
2-0
10.5%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
9.0%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
5.1%
3-1
4.4%
2-2
3.8%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).