Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.5%
Lazio
24.4%
Draw
18.1%
Frosinone
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Lazio
vs
0.78
Frosinone
Markets
BTTS43.0%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.568.7%
Over 2.542.7%
Over 3.521.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.0%
2-0
11.9%
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
9.0%
0-1
7.3%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
5.0%
1-2
4.5%
2-2
3.6%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).