Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.7%
Alaves
27.5%
Draw
47.8%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.94
Alaves
vs
1.42
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS46.6%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.568.6%
Over 2.542.0%
Over 3.521.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.1%
1-1
12.9%
0-0
9.7%
0-2
9.5%
1-2
9.0%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
4.5%
1-3
4.2%
2-2
4.2%
2-0
4.2%
2-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).