Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.5%
Preston
29.0%
Draw
39.5%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Preston
vs
1.34
Derby
Markets
BTTS51.9%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.572.4%
Over 2.545.7%
Over 3.524.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.8%
0-1
9.8%
0-0
9.2%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.3%
2-0
5.6%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
3.8%
0-3
3.2%
3-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).