Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →75.2%
Southampton
18.0%
Draw
6.8%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
1.95
Southampton
vs
0.40
Burnley
Markets
BTTS27.8%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.567.8%
Over 2.541.7%
Over 3.521.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.9%
2-0
18.2%
3-0
11.9%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
7.2%
1-1
7.2%
4-0
5.8%
3-1
4.7%
0-1
4.0%
4-1
2.3%
5-0
2.3%
1-2
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).