Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.8%
Swansea
28.8%
Draw
21.5%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Swansea
vs
0.87
Luton
Markets
BTTS45.5%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.568.5%
Over 2.541.0%
Over 3.520.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.4%
1-0
13.2%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.0%
3-1
4.4%
2-2
3.9%
0-2
3.7%
3-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).