Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.1%
Leeds
26.1%
Draw
48.8%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Leeds
vs
1.80
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS61.0%
Over 0.593.8%
Over 1.582.3%
Over 2.558.8%
Over 3.536.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.7%
0-1
7.0%
2-1
6.7%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
1-3
5.8%
0-3
4.6%
1-0
4.4%
2-0
3.7%
2-3
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).